Wednesday, February 13, 2019
Gully Boy Box Office Prediction
Gully Boy; HIT or FLOP?Gully Boy Box Office Prediction | In-Depth Analysis
After the hat-trick accurate opening day box office collection predictions of Manikarnika, Thackeray and Ek Ladki Ko Dekha Toh Aisa Laga, we are back with another box office prediction analysis: prediction of this Thursday release, Gully Boy.
SEE - Gully Boy Full Box Office Collection Report
Ranveer Singh's second box office release in the span of 6 weeks, Gully Boy, will hit the screens on Feb 14. Simmba was released on 28 December 2018 and went on to become a huge hit at the box office. Ranveer has had back-to-back box office successes in 'Padmavat' and 'Simmba'. And, can 'Gully Boy' give Ranveer Singh a hat-trick at the box office? Also, Gully Boy stars Alia Bhatt, who is also coming after a box office success in the form of the film 'Raazi', in which she was the solo lead. So, will the duo, who gave box office hits individually, be successful again this time together? Let's analyse.
There is a huge palpable buzz surrounding Gully Boy, and the film has also managed to create a good awareness about the film among the general public. Gully Boy's songs are already chartbusters, and have become hugely popular. The trailer has also got a largely positive response. The film will be releasing on Feb 14 on the occasion of Valentines Day, and it will be a solo release. There will be less competition for Gully Boy this week at the box office as the movies released in the last couple of weeks have failed at the box office, namely ELKDTAL and Amavas. The blockbuster film 'Uri The Surgical Strike' which is in its 5th week, and the historical drama 'Manikarnika', have also considerably slowed down. So, Gully Boy has an open platform to perform at the box office this week. The first weekend will definitely be huge because of the buzz and the hype. 'Total Dhamal' will be releasing 8 days later and will significantly eat into its screens.
Both the lead actors, Ranveer Singh and Alia Bhatt, enjoy significant audience pull at the box office, and both of them coming together can do wonders for Gully Boy. However, Gully Boy is not the same kind of film, like Simmba and Raazi. Alia Bhatt's 'Raazi' targeted a completely different audience due to its niche subject, and was purely a multiplex film. While, Simmba was a mass entertainer with more than half of its box office collections coming from the single screens, and primarily targeted the mass audience with its masala-action content. And, Gully Boy belongs to a completely different genre, and targets different section of the audience, and apparently alienates the mass audience (Simmba) and the family audience (Raazi). Gully Boy will basically be targeting the youth; like - college students, young couples, hip hop / rap lovers, guitar enthusiast teenagers who dream of having their own music band one day!
Gully Boy is poised to do better at the multiplexes due to its content and genre, and the single screens will mostly be playing second fiddle to the multiplexes at the box office. However, since the story is not a 'Rich people's problems' theme (like Zoya Akhtar's earlier films), and is based on a rapper who comes from the streets of Mumbai belonging to the poorer section of the society living in the slums, the story may resonate with the single screen audience, and the film might be able to connect with them. The trailer is also quite single-screen-ish with respect to its characters, dialogues and outlook. So, the single screens can produce good numbers for Gully Boy at the box office.
The factors that will work in favour of the film -
Huge buzz and hype, successful star lead actors with significant audience pull and fan base, solo release, valentine's day, positive early reviews, very less competition from films released in the last few weeks, and general positive reaction towards the film.
Gully Boy is well-positioned to take a huge opening at the box office owing to the above factors, and will have a good first weekend as well. But, its performance from Monday onwards will be quite dependent upon the audience word-of-mouth and post-release critical reception, and will also decide how well the film will hold against 'Total Dhamaal which will be releasing a week later.
Our data analysis tells us that the buzz is twice as much as 'Manikarnika' and slightly more than 'Simmba'. The search terms 'Gully Boy ticket booking' and 'Gully Boy release date' are showing huge surge in the volume as the film is nearing its release date. The advance booking reports for Gully Boy are amazing, and are better than Simmba's in NCR, Mumbai, Pune, Bangalore, Hyderabad.
Gully Boy has been our toughest prediction so far. While our gut feeling said 13 - 15 crores, stats are pointing towards 22 - 23 crores! But, we have still kept our prediction numbers to 18.5 - 20 crores.
Gully Boy might collect around ~18.5 - 20 crores on its first day at the box office.
ALSO SEE - Manikarnika Daywise Box Office Report
Gully Boy Screen Count Estimates
Total Screen Count - Around an estimated ~3300 screens all across India.
See - Gully Boy Advance Booking Report
ALSO SEE - URI Daywise Box Office Collection Report
Gully Boy Budget Estimates
Total budget - NA
ALSO SEE - Thackeray Daywise Box Office Collection Report
Gully Boy Day-wise Box Office Collection Prediction
Enough with all the talks. Let's get down to the numbers.
Day 1 (Thu): 18.5 - 20 cr.
- Aditya
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