Thursday, February 28, 2019
Sonchiriya Box Office Prediction
Sonchiriya; HIT or FLOP?Sonchiriya Box Office Prediction | In-Depth Analysis
After a series of accurate opening day box office collection predictions of Manikarnika, Thackeray, ELKDTAL and Gully Boy, we are back with another box office prediction analysis: prediction of this Friday release, Sonchiriya.
'Sonchiriya' is releasing along with 'Luka Chuppi' this Friday at the box office. Being a youth-oriented film, Luka Chuppi clearly has the advantage over Sonchiriya, because of its youth-comedy genre. While Sonchiriya on the other hand, is a niche film targeting a narrow section of the audience. Even though it belongs to the action-drama genre, the action is not the masala-action kind, that appeals to the masses.
The posters give a jaded feel. And, going by the overall outlook of the film, it feels like an overlong realistic bandit drama with a slight cinematic tadka, that you may want to watch on a boring Sunday afternoon. The trailer, however, was quite intense, and gives the vibes of those Vishal Bhardwaj films. It doesn't come as a surprise that the film is directed by Abhishek Chaubey, who earlier directed films like Ishqiya and Dedh Ishqiya. This film also looks similar, and is also set in a similar north Indian rural backdrop, although seems to contain a lot more action.
The opening day collections of the film will not be big, because of the niche genre of the film and the lack of star lead actors. Even though both Sushanth Singh Rajput and Bhumi Pednekar are coming after HIT films, those were strong content-oriented films, and were HIT because of the films themselves, and not because of the actors' star-values. Sonchiriya has actors featuring in it, and not stars.
The first day box office collection will be based on the pre-release interest of the target audience. But, from the second day, the film has to be well-made to even attract its own target audience to the cinemas! Positive critical reception and good audience word-of-mouth matter a lot to these kind of films. And, even if the film gets outright positive reviews, Sonchiriya won't see any huge growth in collections post-Day1, it will just make sure that it brings the people to whom this film caters to, and the growth will only be decent-to-good.
And, if the film manages to impress its core audience over the first weekend, it can be a success at the box office. But the film will be a slow accumulator, and will run for a long time in such a case. Honestly, Sonchiriya has more chances to fail than succeed at the box office, but let's hope the film does well for its own sake.
Sonchiriya, apart from its narrow spectrum of audience, will not be the first choice of the movie-goers this week at the box office, because of 'Luka Chuppi', and also 'Total Dhamaal' which released last week. But, because the films belong to contrasting genres, the audience overlap will be very minimal. Sonchiriya will get its share of viewers irrespective of the other films at the box office. In fact, the competition will be between Luka Chuppi and Total Dhamaal, because of the significant audience overlap.
Our data analysis tells us, that the buzz for Sonchiriya is more than the January release 'Why Cheat India'. The search term 'Sonchiriya release date' is showing a good surge in the volume as the film is nearing its release date.
Sonchiriya might collect around ~2.5 - 3.5 crores on its first day at the box office.
Sonchiriya is a bandit action-drama featuring actors Sushant Singh Rajput, Bhumi Pednekar, Manoj Bajpayee, Ranvir Shorey and Ashutosh Rana in the lead roles. The film is directed by Abhishek Chaubey, and produced by Ronnie Screwvala.
ALSO SEE - Total Dhamaal Daywise Box Office Report
Sonchiriya Screen Count Estimates
Total Screen Count - Around an estimated ~700 screens all across India.
ALSO SEE - Gully Boy Daywise Box Office Collection Report
Sonchiriya Budget Estimates
Total budget - Around an estimated ~25 Crores (CoP + P&A)
ALSO SEE - Uri Daywise Box Office Collection Report
Sonchiriya Day-wise Box Office Collection Prediction
Enough with all the talks. Let's get down to the numbers.
Day 1 (Fri): 2.5 - 3.5 cr.
- Aditya
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