Wednesday, October 02, 2019
War Box Office Prediction
War (2019): HIT or FLOP?War Hindi Movie Day 1 Collection Prediction | Analysis
Bollywood's most anticipated big budget action film of the year, 'War', starring actors Hrithik Roshan and Tiger Shroff in the lead roles together for the first time, is all set to release on October 2nd on the occasion of 'Gandhi Jayanti'. The levels of curiosity and interest about the film were high from the day the film was announced. Big budget action film from 'YRF' starring two big action heroes was always going to create a plenty of buzz, and the film did create a lot of buzz even before the posters were unveiled and the trailer was released. The posters and the trailer have further boosted the interest among the audience; and naturally the expectations from the film at the box office are huge, with most trade analysts expecting 'War' to be the highest opening Bollywood film of the year beating 'Bharat'. Honestly, the film has all the potential to be the highest opening Bollywood film EVER beating 'Thugs of Hindostan', and can turn-out to be one of the highest grossing film in India at the end of its box office run. In this post we try to analyse the box office prospects of 'War' and predict the opening day collection of the film.
'War' is the solo Bollywood release on 2nd October, and is releasing after a good release-gap at the box office, as the films released on the last couple of Fridays failed to make any mark at the box office; specially this Friday (27 Sep) which was practically a no-release day. Apart from Chhichhore and Dream Girl, there are no other significant holdover films. So, the path is clear for 'War' to make the most at the box office, which is looking forward to break some records at the ticket windows. But, even with no other Bollywood films releasing alongside 'War', 'War' may not be able to open to its full box office potential and might be cramped for space with respect to the screens specially in the southern states. The reason for this, is that a Southern big-budget magnum-opus named 'SyeRaa Narasimha Reddy' is releasing on the same day. 'Sye Raa' stars 'Mega Star' Chiranjeevi, Amitabh Bachchan, Kichcha Sudeep, Vijay Sethupathi; who are all big stars of their respective film industries. And, the film 'Sye Raa' is pushing hard to get as many screens as possible, and 'War' has to really fight for screens in the southern states. The battle for screens is heavily tilted towards 'Sye Raa' in the southern states, speacially in AP/TG where 'War' currently has unrealistically less number of screens for a Bollywood big-budget action film. If not for 'Sye Raa', 'War' would've definitely had more screens than the current allocation.
But, the problem is just not in the southern states as 'Sye Raa' has been dubbed into Hindi and is releasing all across India, which is being distributed by AA Films of Anil Thadani, who distributed the successful Hindi dubbed version of 'KGF' against Shahrukh Khan's 'Zero'. We still don't have the exact number of screens for the Hindi version of 'Sye Raa', but it can be anywhere around 1800 screens (Update: 'Sye Raa' released only in around ~850 screens for the Hindi version), which is a significant chunk and which could've been with 'War' if there was no 'Sye Raa'. Because of this competition for screens, both the films have to perform well on Day 1 and carry-on doing it with a positive word-of-mouth specially in the first week, and if they don't, they will lose their screens to the other. And then there is a Hollywood release, 'Joker', which is also going to eat into War's screen space. But, have no doubt, if 'War' finds appreciation from the audience then the screen space is not going to be an issue at all. Only the opening day numbers might be slightly affected, but if the word-of-mouth turns out to be positive, then the film will collect a huge lifetime sum at the box office as the film gets a good number of holidays in its opening week and thereafter.
Going by the trailers, all the three films, 'War' 'Sye Raa' and 'Joker', look good and promising, and all three have been made on a grand scale. The pre-release buzz and interest are very good for 'War' and 'Sye Raa', and the both the films will take a HUGE openings at the box office, but the key here in this clash is to sustain after their respective big openings.
In our opinion, 'War' looks to be a lot more polished and sophisticated action film compared to the other big-budget Indian action movies that have released before. The fact is, big-budget action films have a universal appeal and they've always evoked a good response at the Indian ticket counters on the day of their releases. The recently released big-budget southern action film, 'Saaho', got a big opening even in the Hindi version even after its average looking trailer. 'War' definitely looks better than 'Saaho', and is also helmed by a comparatively better & experienced director, Siddharth Anand, who has previously directed a big-budget actioner like 'Bang Bang' also starring Hrithik Roshan, which was also a box office HIT. On Day 1, 'War' will sell its tickets like hotcakes at both the single screens and the multiplexes. And, 'War's current advance booking trends are certainly indicating towards a very big opening, and the total pre-release advance ticket sales can surpass 'Bharat', and may be even 'Tiger Zinda Hai' and 'Thugs Of Hindostan'.
Overall, going by the current trending in the advance booking and the screen space allocation for 'War', the 1st Day box office collection can surpass the 40 crore mark.
UPDATE: Going by the advance booking figures and the pre-release buzz, we predict the film to take an opening in excess of 55 crores.
ALSO SEE - Sye Raa Hindi Day 1 Collection Prediction & Screen Count
War Screen Count Estimates
Total Screen Count - Around an expected ~4200 screens all across India for all versions.
UPDATE: Here are the official screen counts for 'War' - India: 4000, Overseas: 1350; Total: 5350 (All versions - Hindi, Tamil, Telugu).
SEE - WAR Screen Count & Day 1 Advance Booking Report
War Budget Estimates
Total budget - Around an estimated ~200 Crores (CoP + P&A)
War 1st Day Box Office Collection Prediction
Day 1 (Wednesday): 55+ cr.
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