Saturday, October 26, 2019
Housefull 4 Box Office Prediction
Housefull 4: HIT or FLOP?Housefull 4 Day 1 Collection Prediction | Analysis
Last year's Bollywood Diwali release, 'Thugs Of Hindostan', had created a new all-time Day 1 collection record. But, during last Diwali it was a solo Bollywood release at the box office, and this time it is a 3-way clash at the cinemas with the simultaneous release of three films namely, 'Housefull 4', 'Made In China' and 'Saand Ki Aankh'. In this post, we'll try to analyse the box office prospects and predict the first day box office collection of actor Akshay Kumar starrer comedy film, 'Housefull 4'.
'Housefull 4', by a good margin, is the biggest release this coming Friday compared to the other two films. Both in terms of the budget and the star cast. And, it will also be the biggest release this weekend, with respect to the scale of the release. So, 'Housefull 4' will easily sell a lot more tickets at the box office on Day 1 than the other two releases. And, 'Housefull 4' is perhaps the only film among the three that has the potential to take a double digit opening.
ALSO SEE: Screen Count Analysis: Housefull 4 vs Made In China vs Saand Ki Aankh
'Housefull 4' is the 4th installment in the successful 'Housefull' comedy franchise, and all of the previous three installments have been box office successes by a good margin. And with each new installment, the opening day collection of the 'Housefull' films have been witnessing an upward trend. Which typically means, the 'Housefull' series has the backing of the movie-going audience, and that all the previous three parts have mostly impressed their target audience, along with acquiring new audience for their next installment. Needless to say, 'Housefull 4' will open bigger and better than 'Housefull 3' which is so far the highest opening 'Housefull' film with an opening day collection of around ~16 crores. And, the budget of 'Housefull 4' is also the significantly higher than the previous three films, which shows the confidence the makers have in their comedy franchise.
Along with the backing of the franchise loyal audience, the most important aspect about 'Housefull 4' is the presence of actor Akshay Kumar who has been the part of all four 'Housefull' films. In fact, Akshay Kumar is now pretty much the face of the 'Housefull' movie franchise. And, Akshay Kumar's current excellent form at the box office makes things look even more brighter for 'Housefull 4'. Akshay Kumar's previous film, 'Mission Mangal', had taken an opening of close to ~30 crores in a clash with John Abraham starrer 'Batla House'. But with 'Housefull 4', the clash is 3-ways. However, both the films, 'Made In China' and 'Saand Ki Aankh', together can be equated to 'Batla House', as they both individually are smaller films compared to 'Batla House' in all the aspects. 'Batla House' had collected around ~14.50 crores on its first day; and honestly, the 1st day collections of both 'Made In China' and 'Saand Ki Aankh' put together may not cross half of what 'Batla House' had collected on Day 1. So, the 3-way clash is not much of a problem for 'Housefull 4', as the impact from both the films on 'Housefull 4', we believe, is going to be minimal. Therefore, the opening day performance is almost completely dependent on the film's pre-release hype/buzz and the audiences' interest to watch the film in the cinemas. Even though the genres of 'Mission Mangal' and 'Housefull 4' are quite different and 'Housefull 4' may not open to the levels of 'Mission Mangal', but 'Housefull 4' still has the potential to take a 20+ crore opening.
ALSO SEE: Made In China Day 1 Collection Prediction & Screen Count
'Housefull 4' is releasing on a Holiday due to a festive occasion, Deepavali. But, a holiday due to a festival is not the same as a National Holiday like Independence Day or Gandhi Jayanthi, where people actually have nothing much to do on those days and flock to cinemas in hordes thereby helping the movies to post record box office numbers, and also help the country's economy to surge. During festival holidays, people actually take part in the festivities with family and friends. In short, we believe, the business on festival holidays will be good, but are not going to be as good as during the National Holidays. But, without the comparison with the National Holidays, any holidays are going to boost-up the movie business. And, the Deepavali holiday will benefit 'Housefull 4' in posting a good Day 1 box office total.
And also, there isn't much competition coming from the holdover films from the previous weeks. All of the last week's films including Saif Ali Khan's 'Laal Kaptaan' and Vikram Bhatt's 'Ghost' have been wash-outs. Even Priyanka Chopra's come-back film 'The Sky Is Pink' flopped. And, the only significant holdover film at the box office currently is the action-thriller 'War', which was released on 2nd Oct, and has slowed-down to a great extent to pose any threat to 'Housefull 4'. But, the southern biggie, 'Bigil', starring 'Thalapathy' Vijay, which is also releasing on the same day as 'Housefull 4', will take-up a good number of screens in the southern states, leaving the rest for the 3 Bollywood releases, at least in the first weekend.
ALSO SEE: Saand Ki Aankh Day 1 Collection Prediction & Screen Count
The trailer of 'Housefull 4' was well-cut and promised a genuinely funny film, and was well-received as well. But, the same cannot be said about the songs and the other promotional materials, which were tacky and unimpressive. We have to wait, to see the kind of effect they might have had on movie-going audience, which will be evident by the first day advance bookings. The advance bookings have already started, and have started on a good note. The last time we checked, Delhi NCR had 13.6% seats booked from 446 shows (on 20 Oct, 9:00 PM) with still 5 days to go. We will publish the individual percentage bookings from 14 cities across the country in our Advance Booking Report in the coming days.
Overall, the box office pull of Akshay Kumar and the backing of a successful comedy franchise along with the holiday release will help the film put-up a huge Day 1 figure at the box office. The multi-starrer nature of the film will also aid in posting a good 1st day total, even though they haven't had box office successes in the recent past; like Bobby Deol. And, Riteish Deshmukh is pretty much a multi-starrer film star, as his solo-starrer films have flopped badly at the box office except one or two like 'Lai Bhaari', and most of his box office success have come through multi-starrer films, like the 'Dhamaal' series, 'Masti' series and 'Housefull' series.
In conclusion, we predict 'Housefull 4' to collect in excess of 25 crores on its first day at the box office. We will again update our prediction numbers on the night before release based on our advance booking report.
UPDATE: Based on our Housefull 4 Day 1 Advance Booking Report, we predict the film to take an opening of around 21-22 crores.
ALSO SEE - Marjaavaan Day 1 Collection Prediction & Screen Count
Housefull 4 Screen Count Estimates
Total Screen Count - Around an expected ~3200 screens all across India.
ALSO SEE - Ghost Screen Count Report: Full City-wise Details
Housefull 4 Budget Estimates
Total budget - Around an estimated ~125 Crores (CoP + P&A)
Housefull 4 1st Day Box Office Collection Prediction
Day 1 (Friday): 25+ cr.
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