Saturday, January 25, 2020
Panga Box Office Prediction
Panga: HIT or FLOP?Panga Day 1 Collection Prediction | Analysis
The emotional sports-drama, 'Panga', featuring actress Kangana Ranaut in the lead role, is releasing this Friday at the box office. The film is releasing alongside a comparatively bigger film (in terms of budget, star cast, hype/buzz and box office potential), 'Street Dancer'. In this article, we'll try to analyse the box office prospects of 'Panga', and predict its first day box office collection. So, read on.
'Panga' is actress Kangana Ranaut's first release of the year 2020. Same time last year, she had arrived at the box office with a bigger budget period action-drama, 'Manikarnika'. In comparison, 'Panga' is a small budget content-oriented niche film. 'Manikarnika' was a box office failure, and 'Judgemental Hai Kya' which was released six months after 'Manikarnika', was also a flop. 'Panga' is now releasing six months after 'Judgemental Hai Kya'. Will Kangana be able to find success in 'Panga' after her recent string of box office flops? We will have to wait for the answer.
Kangana Ranaut's last 'Clean-Hit' at the box office is 'Tanu Weds Manu Returns' which was released back in 2015. And after that, she had 6 flops in a row - 'I Love NY', 'Katti Batti', 'Rangoon', 'Simran', 'Manikarnika' and 'Judgemental hai Kya'. Even though the results of the previous films have an impact on the actors' next releases, every release is still a new start at the box office. The actor may not be able to give the film a head-start at the box office, but if the film clicks with its target audience then it will surely work.
'Panga' is that kind of movie which don't take huge openings at the box office, but later grow based on the audience word-of-mouth. The film's opening is going to be minimal to moderate as the film lacks a big star as its lead and also because of its genre. Yes, Kangana Ranaut is recognised actress, but she doesn't have enough box-office pull to boost a film's opening solely because of her name. Also, the film's genre and the fact that it is quite a predictable sports-drama, pretty much narrows down its target audience. The film will mostly be patronised by the multiplex audience, specially by women and the family audience. And, this section usually goes to watch a film in a theatre only if it gets good word-of-mouth and critical reception. Moreover, the holdover film 'Tanhaji' is already being embraced by the women and the family audience, so if 'Panga' fails to get good audience word-of-mouth then 'Tanhaji' will be eating into 'Panga's audiences. Also, the film has nothing for the mass audience, so the business at the single screens will be limited. But, even at the multiplexes, the youth and the students who form a significant chunk of the movie-going audience, may not chose to watch 'Panga', at least not on Day 1, specially when there is a youth-oriented dance film, 'Street Dancer', is releasing on the same day which features young actors, compared to the veteran actors featuring in 'Panga'. Also, 'Street Dancer' and other holdover releases will make life difficult for 'Panga' in acquiring a good screen count.
'Tanhaji', which is performing excellently in Maharashtra and most of the other parts of the country, is going to hold onto a big chunk of its current number of screens. And, even in the screens that 'Tanhaji' and other holdover releases vacate, a majority of it will be allotted to 'Street Dancer'. 'Panga' will mostly replace 'Chhapaak' at the box office, as other bigger films will not be conceding much. So, getting a good number of screens is going to be difficult for 'Panga'. But, even a 1000 screen release should be enough for a film like 'Panga' to post healthy numbers at the box office.
SEE - Panga Advance Booking Report
The trailer of 'Panga' is quite good, and makes the film seem like a good quality product. The film has generated decent amount of buzz for a small film like it. If the film is well-made then the content will do the talk at the box office.
On the whole, going by the current buzz and hype, we predict that 'Panga' might collect around 2-3 crores on its first day at the box office.
ALSO SEE - Manikarnika Day 1 Collection Prediction
Panga Screen Count Estimates
Total Screen Count - Around an expected ~1200 screens all across India.
UPDATE: Official screen count estimate: ~1450 in India.
'Panga' will be releasing alongside a bigger budget dance-action film named 'Street Dancer' which features Varun Dhawan and Shraddha Kapoor in the lead roles.
Panga Budget Estimates
Total budget - Around an estimated ~25 Crores (CoP + P&A).
Panga 1st Day Box Office Collection Prediction
Day 1 (Friday): 2-3 cr.
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